Should You Sell Your Childcare Centre Now? (2026 Market Update)

The Australian childcare market is in one of the strongest selling windows we have seen in years. Buyer demand is outstripping supply, yields are compressing, and centres are trading faster and at higher multiples than 12 months ago. If you have been waiting for the right time to sell, the data suggests that time is now.

But timing a sale is not just about the market. It is about your centre, your lease, your personal situation, and whether you can realistically achieve a price that makes the exit worthwhile. Here is what the numbers say — and what they do not tell you.

The Market Case for Selling in 2026

The transaction data paints a clear picture. According to Stonebridge Property Group, over $205 million in childcare property changed hands in 2025 alone. Burgess Rawson recorded $241.6 million in childcare investment sales across FY2024–25, a 6% increase on the prior period. In December 2025, Burgess Rawson’s portfolio auction hit a record $151 million, with early childhood assets leading the way.

Individual transactions have been equally striking. A Sydney childcare centre sold for $16 million in January 2026, setting a new national record. Another Sydney property transacted for $11.5 million the same month. In March 2026, Stonebridge reported a metro Sydney centre selling within 24 hours of listing for $9.85 million at a 4.72% yield.

These are not isolated results. They reflect a market where private investors, family offices, and increasingly institutional capital are competing for quality childcare assets.

Why Buyers Are Paying More

Three factors are driving buyer demand right now.

Government-backed revenue. The childcare sector is underwritten by over $21 billion in federal early learning funding in the 2025–2026 budget. The Child Care Subsidy ensures stable, recurring income for operators, which is exactly the kind of cash flow investors want. According to IBISWorld, the sector has grown to $24 billion in annual revenue in 2026 — and it continues to expand at around 6.7% per year.

Yield compression. Childcare property yields have compressed by 90 to 130 basis points over 2025, according to Stonebridge. Metro centres now trade at yields between 4.25% and 5.25%, while regional assets sit between 5.25% and 6.25%. For sellers, yield compression means higher sale prices for the same income stream. A centre generating $300,000 in net rent selling at a 6% yield is worth $5 million. At 4.5%, the same centre is worth $6.67 million. That is a $1.67 million difference — with no change to the underlying business.

Defensive asset appeal. With the RBA cash rate at 4.10% as at March 2026 and inflation still sitting at 3.8%, investors are seeking assets with long-dated, secure income. Childcare ticks every box: essential service, government subsidies, long leases, and growing demand driven by population growth and workforce participation.

What Actually Drives Your Sale Price

Market conditions set the playing field, but your sale price depends on your centre’s fundamentals. In our experience, the gap between what an owner thinks their centre is worth and what a buyer will actually pay comes down to five factors.

Adjusted EBITDA. Childcare centres in Australia typically trade at 3 to 5 times adjusted EBITDA. The key word is “adjusted.” Buyers will strip out owner salaries above market rate, related-party rent, one-off expenses, and any income that is not sustainable. We regularly see a 20–40% gap between stated and adjusted EBITDA. Getting your financials clean before going to market is not optional — it is the single biggest thing you can do to maximise your price.

Lease terms. A centre with 15 years remaining on a well-structured lease will attract a fundamentally different buyer pool — and a fundamentally different price — than one with three years left and no options. Long, secure leases with reasonable escalation clauses are the backbone of value in this sector.

Occupancy and waitlist. A centre running at 85%+ occupancy with a documented waitlist is significantly more attractive than one struggling at 60%. High occupancy de-risks the acquisition for the buyer and supports a higher multiple.

NQF rating. Centres rated “Exceeding” under the National Quality Framework command a premium. A “Working Towards” rating is not a deal-breaker, but it gives the buyer negotiating leverage and usually suppresses the multiple by 0.5 to 1.0 times.

Location and demographics. Population growth, workforce participation, and the ratio of approved places to children under five in your area all matter. Buyers and their advisors will run demographic analysis before making an offer. If the data supports demand, your position strengthens.

When You Should Wait

Not every owner should rush to sell. The market is strong, but a few situations warrant caution.

Your lease expires within two years and the landlord is not negotiating. A short lease with no options dramatically reduces your sale price. In some cases, it may be worth waiting to secure a lease extension first — even if it takes 12 months of negotiation.

Occupancy is temporarily depressed. If your centre recently lost an educator or experienced a dip for seasonal reasons, your trailing EBITDA will not reflect the centre’s true earning capacity. Stabilise first, then sell.

You are mid-way through a quality improvement plan. Achieving an “Exceeding” rating before sale could add significant value. If you are within six months of an assessment and confident in the outcome, it may be worth the wait.

You do not have a clear post-sale plan. Selling a childcare centre is a major financial and personal decision. If you have not thought about what comes next — whether that is retirement, a new venture, or reinvestment — the emotional weight of the transaction can lead to poor decisions at the negotiating table.

The Window Will Not Stay Open Forever

Markets are cyclical. The current combination of strong buyer demand, compressed yields, government funding certainty, and limited supply of quality assets is unusually favourable for sellers. But conditions can shift. A significant increase in new childcare approvals could tip the supply–demand balance. Regulatory changes could alter investor sentiment. Interest rate movements could redirect capital elsewhere.

None of these are imminent, but they are real risks over a 12–24 month horizon. Owners who have been considering a sale should treat this as a serious window of opportunity.

Key Takeaway

The data is unambiguous: 2026 is a strong market for childcare centre sellers. Transaction volumes are up, yields are compressed, and buyers are competing for quality assets. But a strong market alone does not guarantee a strong result. Your sale price depends on your financials, your lease, your occupancy, and your preparation. Get those right, and the market will reward you.

Considering selling your childcare centre? Talk to ChildcareLink for a confidential, no-obligation market appraisal. Visit childcarelink.com.au or contact our team directly.

Sources

• Stonebridge Property Group — (2025) transaction data and yield ranges
• Burgess Rawson / CBRE — FY2024–25 childcare investment sales data
• The Sector — Sydney childcare transaction reports (January 2026)
• IBISWorld — childcare industry market size (2026)
• Reserve Bank of Australia — cash rate (March 2026)
• Australian Government Department of Education — 2025–2026 budget early learning funding

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or professional advice. ChildcareLink recommends seeking independent professional advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making any business or investment decisions.